A new study projects the US will land nowhere near its goal of significantly reducing carbon emissions by the year 2025, as planned during the Paris climate talks. In fact, the most generous estimates put the US’ efforts at about one sixth of the pledged reduction rates. With less than a decade to go, a far more aggressive trade up of of fossil fuels for renewable energy is needed.

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As decided upon during the Paris climate agreement last year, the US is planning to slash its emissions by 28 percent, based on its 2005 greenhouse gas emission levels. A new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change ran the numbers on past and current climate policies, predicting how the US might fare come 2025 – and the results aren’t promising. Given the most optimistic projections, the study only saw a possible 4.8 percent emissions reduction, leaving a gaping 24.4 percent to go.

Related: 5 things the Paris climate deal must do to slow global warming

The study found that the EPA’s Clean Power Plan would make the biggest dent in reducing emissions, yet the current plan is less effective than a previous, more aggressive plan. The researchers suggest that the US needs to dramatically phase out coal and natural gas while simultaneously ramping up renewable energy and electric vehicles across the country in order to have a fighting chance of reaching its goal.

It is worth noting that this year’s presidential election could play a key role in how things go, seeing as Republican nominee and climate change-denying windbag Donald Trump has pledged to withdraw the US from the COP 21 climate agreement if elected into office.

Via ARS Technica

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